2020 US ELECTION BIDEN v TRUMP: Final Electoral Map Prediction

Geekgod Review electoral map generated with the help of yapms.com. We cross-referenced available polls and election data (Emerson, Quinnipiac, Rasmussen among others) to come up with our electoral map, with studies of 2008, 2012, and 2016 electoral results; Obama-McCain, Obama-Romney, Clinton-Trump.

Our final prediction map is 335-203 for Vice President Joe Biden. Biden is expected to win by a slim margin in Nevada (6), Arizona (11), and North Carolina (15) by mere 2 points and the much contested Florida (29) with 3 points. Donald Trump will hold on to Texas (38) with a mere 1 point, and will manage to keep Georgia (16) and Iowa (6) red by 2 points, and Ohio (18) by 3 points.

BEST ELECTORAL MAP: JOE BIDEN

Biden could win up to 413 electoral votes by turning Texas, Georgia, Iowa and Ohio blue. Those states are within the margin of error of 3 to 4 points.

BEST ELECTORAL MAP: DONALD TRUMP

Even if Trump could win Nevada and keep Arizona, North Carolina, and Florida, there is still no path for him to 270. Pennsylvania is well outside the margin of error (plus 6 to Biden) and the other rust belt states are out of reach. (With the exception of polling-error prone Wisconsin).

BATTLE GROUND STATES

The blue wall is expected to be restored as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are now out of reach for Trump based on the margin of error of 3 to 4 points. 

Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, and Florida are tight races to watch and could be expected to be red on election night. These are the states that Biden currently holds a slim lead.

Trump is hanging on to Texas, Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio but Biden could turn these states blue given the margin of error.

POPULAR VOTES

We’ve calculated the projected popular votes the candidates could be getting come November by gathering the voters turn out data from 2016 general elections and getting the percentage based on the various current available polling data.

Biden is projected to win the popular votes because he is well above the 50 percentage threshold, 51.43% compared to Trump’s unmovable 42.71% base.

State Classification and Metrics Used

Here’s our classification of the 2020 battle ground states based on historic voting data and the metrics used to come up with the electoral map.

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