2020 US ELECTION BIDEN v TRUMP (August Electoral Map): The Convention Bump

Geekgod Review electoral map generated with the help of yapms.com. We cross-referenced available polls and election data (Emerson, Quinnipiac, Rasmussen among others) to come up with our electoral map, with studies of 2008, 2012, and 2016 electoral results; Obama-McCain, Obama-Romney, Clinton-Trump.

Vice President Joe Biden increases his projected electoral votes (EVs) to 285 after the Democratic convention while Mr. Donald Trump, despite the Republican convention, dropped to 150 EVs, losing North Carolina (15) and Georgia (16) which are now in the toss-up column. Biden losses Wisconsin (10) and New Hampshire (4) but gains Florida (29). Trump’s solid EVs drop from 103 to 94 with Montana (3) and Arkansas (6) going from solid red to lean red while Biden increased its solid EVs from 212 to 223 with Arizona (11) going from lean blue to solid blue.

THE ROAD TO 270: JOE BIDEN

Democrat_Donkey(1)Vice President Joe Biden reaches pass the 270 EVs needed to win the election. Losing Wisconsin and New Hampshire to the toss-up column was a blow but it was compensated by the Biden team getting Florida from toss-up to lean blue. Biden maintains or increases his lead on almost all of the battleground states, being now up in Georgia and North Carolina with 3 and 2 points respectively.

THE ROAD TO 270: DONALD TRUMP

republicanlogo-svgDonald Trump is still grappling to get back Texas on the red column. While he narrowly leads in Ohio and Iowa, Trump must take back Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, and Arizona and try to win at least one or two of the other remaining battleground states. The only state that the Trump campaign can see a silver lining is Nevada, with a thin 5-point lead for Biden.

BATTLE GROUND STATES

POPULAR VOTES

We’ve calculated the projected popular votes the candidates could be getting come November by gathering the voters turn out data from 2016 general elections and getting the percentage based on the various current available polling data.

It’s 50.69% to Biden against 42.25% to Trump with a almost 1-point move for Biden and a half a percent point increase for Trump. Based on the 2016 voter turn out, Biden will have a projected 70.3 million popular votes to Trump’s 58.6 million, with the undecided voters going down from 11.9 million to 9.8 million.

State Classification and Metrics Used

Here’s our classification of the 2020 battle ground states based on historic voting data and the metrics used to come up with the electoral map.

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