2020 US ELECTION BIDEN v TRUMP (September Electoral Map): The First Debate

Geekgod Review electoral map generated with the help of yapms.com. We cross-referenced available polls and election data (Emerson, Quinnipiac, Rasmussen among others) to come up with our electoral map, with studies of 2008, 2012, and 2016 electoral results; Obama-McCain, Obama-Romney, Clinton-Trump.

The lead of Vice President Joe Biden is narrowing as the electoral map stands 240-182 to Biden. Biden loses Michigan (16) and Florida (29) which are now back in the toss-up column. Donald Trump brings back Texas (38) in his column, a huge victory, but loses Iowa (6).

THE ROAD TO 270: JOE BIDEN

Democrat_Donkey(1)Biden’s lead on the battleground states is narrowing but not with a significant margin in most states. North Carolina is in a virtual tie, and Michigan dropped to single digit. His lead in Wisconsin is also dropping, a warning sign. He is still poised to win the majority of those states with less than a month until election. The good news is that he is leading +2 in Iowa after months of that state leaning red.

THE ROAD TO 270: DONALD TRUMP

republicanlogo-svgTrump gets back Texas but loses Iowa. Trump’s path to 270 is still difficult with him trailing behind Biden in most states. He needs to win majority of the toss up states for his re-election. A difficult feat as Biden is leading in all of these states except for Ohio and Texas.

BATTLE GROUND STATES

POPULAR VOTES

We’ve calculated the projected popular votes the candidates could be getting come November by gathering the voters turn out data from 2016 general elections and getting the percentage based on the various current available polling data.

It’s 50.91% to Biden against 42.23% to Trump with a .3 increase for Biden and virtually no changed for Trump. Based on the 2016 voter turn out, Biden will have a projected 70.8 million popular votes to Trump’s 58.5 million, with the undecided voters going down from 9.8 million to 9.5 million.

State Classification and Metrics Used

Here’s our classification of the 2020 battle ground states based on historic voting data and the metrics used to come up with the electoral map.

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