2020 US ELECTION BIDEN v TRUMP (July Electoral Map): The Fall of Texas

Geekgod Review electoral map generated with the help of yapms.com. We cross-referenced available polls and election data (Emerson, Quinnipiac, Rasmussen among others) to come up with our electoral map, with studies of 2008, 2012, and 2016 electoral results; Obama-McCain, Obama-Romney, Clinton-Trump.

ELECTORAL VOTES

Vice President Joe Biden increases his projected electoral votes and reaches the 270 threshold to win the elections while Mr. Donald Trump regains the 26 EVs he lost and is now back to 181. Biden gets Wisconsin (10), New Hampshire (4), Nevada (6), and the red state Arizona (11). The four states lean blue. Trump gets Iowa (6), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), and Georgia (16) with Missouri (10) back in his column. A devastating blow for Trump is the lost of Texas (38) with Biden getting a 2-point lead. The traditional solid red state is now an official battle ground state.

THE ROAD TO 270: JOE BIDEN

Democrat_Donkey(1)Vice President Joe Biden reaches the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election. Warning signs though are the narrowing lead in Minnesota which moved from solid blue to lean blue. The good news is that Biden takes Wisconsin and New Hampshire with double digit leads while widening his lead in the red state Arizona to also double digits. Despite having no movement in Nevada, we considered it a lean blue state due to its voting history. Biden’s lead is also widening in Pennsylvania, which still remains a toss-up, together with Florida. His lead in that state is narrowing while he currently has a 2-point lead in the Republican stronghold Texas.

THE ROAD TO 270: DONALD TRUMP

republicanlogo-svgMr. Donald Trump loses Texas, a huge blow. The state now moved to the toss up column. Trump, however, gains Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina and Georgia, with Missouri returning to lean red column. The path seemed to be closing down for Trump. He must win Florida and Pennsylvania and take back Texas. Minnesota seemed to be a opening for Trump with him just being under 3 points in the state.

BATTLE GROUND STATES

POPULAR VOTES

We’ve calculated the projected popular votes the candidates could be getting come November by gathering the voters turn out data from 2016 general elections and getting the percentage based on the various current available polling data.

It’s 49.74% to Biden against 41.69% to Trump with virtually no movement for Biden and a 0.48 point increase for Trump. Based on the 2016 voter turn out, Biden will have a projected 69 million popular votes to Trump’s 57.8 million, with 11.9 million undecided voters.

State Classification and Metrics Used

Here’s our classification of the 2020 battle ground states based on historic voting data and the metrics used to come up with the electoral map.

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