Geekgod Review electoral map generated with the help of 270towin. We cross-referenced available polls and election data (Emerson, Quinnipiac, Rasmussen) to come up with our electoral map, with studies of 2008, 2012, and 2016 electoral results; Obama-McCain, Obama-Romney, Clinton-Trump.
Vice President Joe Biden increases his projected electoral votes to 238 while Mr. Donald Trump loses 26 EVs and is now down to 155. Colorado (9) and Michigan (16) leans blue as Biden loses New Hampshire (4) which turned from leaning blue to a full-blown battleground state. But the good news for the Biden campaign is Minnesota (10) going a solid blue. On the other hand, Trump still holds Texas (38). This is despite the fact that Biden leads in Texas by 1 point, because it is a solid red state. A huge blow for Trump is the loss of Georgia (16) and Missouri (10) which are now toss-up states.
THE ROAD TO 270: JOE BIDEN
Biden just needs 32 EVs to win the election. He is now leading in most of the battleground states. The easiest path is to focus on states Trump won with a razor-thin margin. Biden leads in Nevada (6) +4, New Hampshire (4) +7, and Pennsylvania (20) +5. If Biden takes Florida (29), a state Trump won with just 1 point, and North Carolina (15), where Trump won by 3 points, then it is game over.
THE ROAD TO 270: DONALD TRUMP
The first order of business for the Trump campaign: f*cking hold Texas (38). If Texas turns blue, then the rest of the battleground states will not matter anymore. Some silver lining for Trump is he is leading in Iowa (6) and Wisconsin (10) with 1 point. They also should try to wrestle Ohio (18) and North Carolina (15) from Biden who leads the states with 1 to 2 points. Next, focus on the traditionally red states of Arizona (11), Georgia (16), and Missouri (10). However, all of these states are still not enough to reach 270. For that Trump badly needs Florida (29).
We’ve calculated the projected popular votes the candidates could be getting come November by gathering the voters turn out data from 2016 general elections and getting the percentage based on the various current available polling data.
It’s 49.66% to Biden against 41.21% to Trump with a 0.5 increase for Biden and a 1 point drop for Trump. Based on the 2016 voter turn out, Biden will have a projected 68.8 million popular votes to Trump’s 57.1 million, with 12.7 million undecided voters.