2020 US ELECTION BIDEN v TRUMP (Electoral Map June 1-15): Let the game begin!

Geekgod Review electoral map generated with the help of 270towin. We cross-referenced available polls and election data (Emerson, Quinnipiac, Rasmussen) to come up with our electoral map, with studies of 2008, 2012, and 2016 electoral results; Obama-McCain, Obama-Romney, Clinton-Trump.

ELECTORAL VOTES

For our first electoral map prediction, it’s 232 electoral votes for former Vice President Joe Biden compared to 181 electoral votes to Mr. Donald Trump. Biden has 203 EVs of solid blue wall as of the moment with Michigan (16) and Colorado (9) leaning towards the Democrats. Trump has 111 EVs of solid red state with four traditionally red states (total EVs: 70) leaning Republican.

THE ROAD TO 270: JOE BIDEN

Democrat_Donkey(1)Biden is just short of 48 EVs to win the election. He is leading in Minnesota (10) and Nevada (6) with a +4 to +5 points as of the latest polls. The other battleground states are tricky for the Biden campaign. He is leading in Arizona (11) with +6 points, Florida (29) with +3 points, and North Carolina (15) with +4 points. All three states have a tendency to lean Republican based on past elections. The former Vice President is also in a deadlock with Trump in Iowa (6) and leads in Ohio (18) with +2 points. Both states voted heavily for Trump in 2016. Wisconsin (10) and Pennsylvania (20) are the two next options for the campaign. The polls in Wisconsin are pointing to a virtual tie while Trump leads with +4 points in Pennsylvania. The good news is that he is leading in Michigan (16) with a double-digit and a comfortable +8 point-lead in New Hampshire.

THE ROAD TO 270: DONALD TRUMP

republicanlogo-svgThere are worrying signs in Texas for Trump based on the latest polls. But he is still holding on to Georgia (16) with +4 points. We do not consider Georgia a swing state based on its recent historical voting trend which leans towards the Republicans. Trump is also losing ground in Utah but it is a Republican stronghold so it is still a safe red state as of the moment. Trump is beyond Biden in polls in the battleground states except for Pennsylvania. With a 181 projected EVs, he still needs 89 EVs more for reelection. With Pennsylvania (20), the best path for the Trump campaign is to regain the red state (not a swing state in our opinion) of Arizona (11), win traditionally leaning red Florida (29) and win again on states he carried in double-digits last 2016: Iowa (6) and Ohio (18) with North Carolina (15) locking down his path to 270. Wisconsin (10) can be an alternative.

BATTLEGROUND STATES TO WATCH

#1 Wisconsin (10) Current trend: Too close to call

#2 Ohio (18) Current trend: Too close to call

#3 Iowa (6) Current trend: to Trump

#4 Pennsylvania (20) Current trend: to Trump

Geekgod Review prediction: 276-262 to Joe Biden

We give the battleground states of Nevada (6) and Minnesota (10) plus Wisconsin (10) and Ohio (18) to Biden. Trump will gain North Carolina (15), Florida (29), and Arizona (11), Pennsylvania (20), and Iowa (6).

POPULAR VOTES

We’ve calculated the projected popular votes the candidates could be getting come November by gathering the voters turn out data from 2016 general elections and getting the percentage based on the various current available polling data.

It’s 49.44% to Biden against 42.51% to Trump. Based on the 2016 voter turn out, Biden will have a projected 68.5 million popular votes to Trump’s 58.9 million, with 11.2 million undecided voters.

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