US GENERAL ELECTIONS: BATTLE FOR WHITE HOUSE

ELECTORAL MAP RELEASE NO.10

Geek God Review electoral map generated with the help of 270towin. We cross-referenced available polls and election data (Emerson, Quinnipiac, Rasmussen) to come up with our electoral map, with studies of  electoral results from 1964 (Lyndon Johnson vs Barry Goldwater) to 2012 (Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney).

ELECTORAL VOTES

Alaska and Texas has officially fallen from the grasp of the Republicans as their nominee Donald Trump slipped to the historical low projected electoral votes of  117, including 11 leaning electoral votes. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton solidifies her strong states with 270 electoral votes and 35 electoral votes from leaning states, going into a possible landslide two weeks before the election with a total of 305 electoral votes. With 116 electoral votes from 7 battle ground states including Utah.

Clinton gets the Republican state of Arizona with a +5 lead and tightens control of the former battle ground states of Nevada and Colorado, with +7 lead in Nevada and a double-digit lead in Colorado. Trump lost his grip in Georgia which turned into a battle ground state joining other Republican states of Alaska, Texas and Utah.

BATTLE GROUND STATES

Here are the current polls data from the battle ground states:

Alaska: 37% – 36% to Trump

Florida: 46% – 43% to Clinton

Georgia: 45.80%-45.40% to Clinton

Iowa: 43% – 39% to Trump

Ohio: 45% – 45% (tie)

Texas: 46%-43% to Trump

Utah: 31%- 27% – 24% to McMullin

Some good news first for Trump, he seems to be still in fighting stance in Ohio while maintaining a slim lead in red state Texas. Utah might be lost to both the major party candidates as independent Evan McMullin is poised to get the state’s 6 electoral votes with a 31% projected votes. Trump maintains his lead in Iowa. The bad news fro Trump is that Clinton seems to be pulling away from him in Florida while slowly taking lead in Alaska (shocker) and Georgia, an important state for Trump.

THE ROAD TO 270: HILLARY CLINTON

Clinton has a strong blue wall of 270 electoral votes while her electoral votes in leaning states is up 35 with some good signs that she could take Florida’s 29 electoral votes. The current data from the polls point to a landslide.

THE ROAD TO 270: DONALD TRUMP

The loss of Alaska and Texas was pretty bad, especially with the lone star state having 38 electoral votes. Trump must win all of the battle ground states AND all of the leaning states of Clinton or win Nevada, Colorado and Pennsylvania (the three of which currently in the strong states category of Clinton) and bring back Arizona to be able for him to pull a miracle: 279-259.

POPULAR VOTES

We’ve calculated the projected popular votes the candidates could be getting come November by gathering the voters turn out data from 2012 general elections and getting the percentage based on the various current available polling data.

Clinton now has a 7% lead nationally, 45% to 38% as Trump dropped 1% from last week. Trump lost about a million projected votes to now around 47.3 million, Clinton’s number remains the same with 52 million projected votes. The third party candidates numbers are deteriorating. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson now only have 5.92% projected votes (around 7.3 million). Jill Stein could get around 2.8 million votes (2.25%).