US GENERAL ELECTIONS: BATTLE FOR WHITE HOUSE
ELECTORAL MAP RELEASE NO.8
Geek God Review electoral map generated with the help of 270towin. We cross-referenced available polls and election data (Emerson, Quinnipiac, Rasmussen) to come up with our electoral map, with studies of 2008 and 2012 electoral results; Obama-McCain and Obama-Romney
Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
The polls data after the first presidential debate are in! Hillary Clinton, who soundly defeated Donald Trump on that debate, gets an increase on her projected electoral votes, though by just 6 points from 273 to 279 (including 35 leaning electoral votes). Trump’s electoral votes are on the decline sliding from 197 to 180 (including 16 leaning electoral votes). We have new battle ground states as we move closer to the elections, all with a total of 79 electoral votes from 6 states.
BATTLE GROUND STATES
Here are the current polls data from the six battle ground states:
Arizona: 41.8% – 38.8% to Trump
Colorado: 42% – 41% to Trump
Iowa: 38% – 38% (tie)
North Carolina: 44% – 43% to Clinton
Ohio: 40.7% – 42.7% to Trump
Pennsylvania: 45% – 43% to Clinton
Trump lost the leaning states of Arionza and Iowa though he is poised to take Arizona with a +3 points lead all with 17 electoral votes. Clinton scored major victories this week as she hold on to an enough lead in Florida (+4 points) and Nevada (+6 points) to have these states in her leaning states side, all for a total of 35 electoral votes.
THE ROAD TO 270: HILLARY CLINTON
Clinton gains 6 electoral votes more this week, totaling to 279, enough to secure the elections. Again she just needs to hold on to her decreasing lead in some of her strong states and win the states leaning to her.
THE ROAD TO 270: DONALD TRUMP
After a good week last week, Trump’s numbers are sliding down again and the major blows to him are the lost of the important battle ground states of Florida and Nevada, as well as, the lost of leaning states Arizona and Iowa. With just over a month to go before the elections, he needs to bring back Florida and Nevada from Clinton’s fold and win all of the battle ground states at the same time. This while maintaining his lead on his strong states, to make the electoral votes in his favor 294 to 244.
We’ve calculated the projected popular votes the candidates could be getting come November by gathering the voters turn out data from 2012 general elections and getting the percentage based on the various current available polling data.
Clinton widens her national polls lead 43% to 39% although the trend is that Trump seemed to be solidifying his hold on his strong states while Clinton barely maintains her lead on her strong states. Clinton’s projected popular votes could be around 53.8 million against Trump’s 47.9 million.
The third party candidates’ numbers are going down still. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson’s number slid to from 8.13% to 7.93% (roughly translates to 9.8million votes), not enough to get himself on the second debate (he needs to get 10% in the national polls). Jill Stein could get around 3.5 million votes (2.86%).