US GENERAL ELECTIONS: BATTLE FOR WHITE HOUSE
ELECTORAL MAP RELEASE NO.7
Geek God Review electoral map generated with the help of 270towin. We cross-referenced available polls and election data (Emerson, Quinnipiac, Rasmussen) to come up with our electoral map, with studies of 2008 and 2012 electoral results; Obama-McCain and Obama-Romney
Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
Hillary Clinton’s pneumonia episode is kicking in for Donald Trump as he gets 197 electoral votes up from last update’s 175 electoral votes, gaining the battle ground states of Georgia (16) and Iowa (6). Clinton maintains her 273 electoral votes from last time though she lost the leaning state of North Carolina (15 electoral votes) which is now a battle ground state. It now joins the other battle ground states of Ohio, Nevada and Florida with a combined 68 contested electoral votes.
BATTLE GROUND STATES
Unlike the other articles on polls analysis, Geek God Review maintained Ohio in the battle ground states category as it is averaging just a 1.7+ Trump advantage according to latest polls data. Trump and Clinton are virtually tie in North Carolina, Florida and Nevada.
THE ROAD TO 270: HILLARY CLINTON
Clinton maintains her 273 electoral votes, enough to secure the elections despite rocky poll results for her this week. She just needs to hold on to her slim lid in some states where she has just +3 to +4 lead like Rhode Island and New Jersey.
THE ROAD TO 270: DONALD TRUMP
Trump’s campaign is doing good this week as he wins the battle ground states of Iowa and Georgia and pulling North Carolina out of Clinton and turning it into a battle ground state. He just needs to make sure to get the 33 electoral votes leaning to him (Georgia, Iowa and Arizona) and win the 68 contested electoral votes from Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina and Florida to increase his numbers to 265.
To reach 270 electoral votes and to pull Clinton’s number down, he also needs to get one state from Clinton with more than 3 electoral votes. Currently, he is trailing behind her with just 3 to 4 points in Rhode Island and New Jersey, two Democrat states that he could pull out of Clinton to make the score 283-255 in his favor.
We’ve calculated the projected popular votes the candidates could be getting come November by gathering the voters turn out data from 2012 general elections and getting the percentage based on the various current available polling data.
It’s 42% to Clinton against 38% of Trump. Trump’s numbers slid down due to some adjustments in the polls data but trend is in his favor as he seems to be solidifying his hold on majority of his strongholds while Clinton’s number is slipping down (though it is not reflected on her current number because of the polls data adjustment). Clinton’s projected popular votes could be around 52.5 million against Trump’s 47.3 million.
The third party candidates’ numbers are going down too. After the “What is Aleppo?” incident, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson’s number slid to just 8.13% from 9% (roughly translates to 10 million votes). He needs to get 10% to be able to join the second national debate. Jill Stein could get around 3.8 million votes (3.10%).