US GENERAL ELECTIONS: BATTLE FOR WHITE HOUSE

ELECTORAL MAP RELEASE NO.5

(Geek God Review electoral map generated with the help of 270towin. We cross-referenced available polls and election data to come up with our electoral map, with studies of 2008 and 2012 electoral results; Obama-McCain and Obama-Romney)

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Hillary Clinton gets 243 electoral votes against 148 of Donald Trump with 56 electoral votes leaning for Clinton, 16 to Trump and 75 contested electoral votes from 6 battle ground states of Ohio, Nevada, Iowa, Georgia and Florida. Arizona and North Carolina are now leaning to Clinton. It’s 56% to 31%, Clinton lead on Electoral College now 25%, up from 21% from our previous data.

THE CHANGES

We’re down to five battle ground states from six on our last prediction. Arizona from being a Republican state to a swing state now became leaning to the Democrats. Iowa became a swing state from being a leaning Democrat state. Hillary Clinton’s electoral votes are up by 20 points, Trump’s number did not change.

THE ROAD TO 270: HILLARY CLINTON

Clinton just needs to clinch the 56 electoral votes leaning to her to win the elections by 29 votes.

THE ROAD TO 270: DONALD TRUMP

There’s no movement on Trump’s number. Aside from ensuring to clinch the 16 electoral votes leaning to him, he needs to win the five swing states. The lost of Arizona and North Carolina (26 total electoral votes) are big setbacks to his campaign, but Iowa’s shift to a swing state is a good sign. Florida is still a swing state which could be a bad news, as well as Georgia, two traditional Republican states. If he could manage to win those two states, plus all of the swing states, he could get 284 electoral votes.

The key states to lower down Clinton’s 299 electoral votes are Minnesota (10), North Carolina (15) and Oregon (7). All three states’ polls currently showing just an average of 2.5% lead of Clinton. If Trump could get those three states away from Clinton, the final electoral votes count could be 316-267 in his favor.

POPULAR VOTES

We’ve calculated the projected popular votes the candidates could be getting come November by gathering the voters turn out data from 2012 general elections and getting the percentage based on the various current available polling data.

It’s 44% to Clinton against 38% of Trump, with a lead of 6%. Clinton’s projected popular votes could be around 54.5 million against Trump’s 46.7 million. Gary Johnson could get around 8 million votes (around 6.5%) and Jill Stein could get around 2.8 million votes (2.30%).

THIRD PARTY RISE

Compared to the 2012 General Elections, the two major candidates could be losing around 37 million votes combined, as Gary Johnson’s numbers are increasing to 8 million votes, up from what he got on 2012 (1.2 million). Jill Stein’s numbers also increased, from a meager 500,000 votes to our projected 2.8 million votes, 5X what she got the last time around. The rest of around 30 million voters are either undecided or will not vote for any of the candidates which could mean a lower voter turn out come November.