After party conventions, Clinton gets 49% to Trump’s 39%
The post-convention polls are in, and they consistently show Hillary Clinton entering the next phase of the presidential election campaign with the upper hand over Donald Trump. The CNN Poll of Polls incorporating the results of six major polls — all conducted after the party conventions concluded in late July — finds Clinton with an average of 49% support to Trump’s 39%. When third party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are included, the margin remains the same, with both candidates losing the same amount of support to land at 45% for Clinton to 35% for Trump, with Johnson at 9% and Stein at 5%. (http://edition.cnn.com/2016/08/08/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-cnn-poll-of-polls/)
Why the GOP majority could get wiped out in November
Three months before the election, the news is pretty much all bad for Republicans — so bad, in fact, that the question it raises is whether November is going to see a Democratic wave that not only washes Hillary Clinton into the White House but also secures majorities for Democrats in the Senate and even in the House of Representatives. Clinton’s steady rise in the polls since the Democratic convention has solidified into a 7.5-point lead in the Real Clear Politics average — twice the margin enjoyed by Barack Obama over John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012 at roughly the same point in the cycle.
Electoral Map: Georgia is turning purple
Since the end of the Democratic National Convention, Hillary Clinton has been riding high in the polls nationally, in swing states, and in a few places that should give Republicans cause for real alarm. One of those places is Georgia, a state that hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1992. After months of a slim Trump lead in the state, two recent polls show Clinton ahead. The latest, a JMC Enterprises poll of likely voters, shows Clinton up by a remarkable 7 percentage points. Although JMC has a “C” rating in FiveThirtyEight’s pollster rankings, FiveThirtyEight’s own polls-only forecasting model suggests that a Clinton lead in Georgia could very well be real; it currently gives her a 52.7 percent chance of winning the state.
As Trump sinks deeper in the polls, he is taking his campaign to … Connecticut.
After several weeks of polls show Donald Trump falling behind not just in swing states, but also in typically red states, the Republican nominee is taking his campaign to … Connecticut. Yes, Trump is heading to Connecticut on Saturday, where he hopes to shore up support in a state that hasn’t voted for a Republican since 1988 and isn’t on anybody’s list of key battleground states this year. There hasn’t been much polling out of the Constitution State, but the few surveys that have come out show Clinton leading Trump comfortably there. In 2012, Barack Obama won the state by 17 points.
Electoral Map: What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like
We’re going to spend a lot of time over the next 87 days contemplating the possibility of a Donald Trump presidency. Trump is a significant underdog — he has a 13 percent chance of winning the election according to our polls-only model and a 23 percent chance according to polls-plus. But those probabilities aren’t that small. For comparison, you have a 17 percent chance of losing a “game” of Russian roulette. But there’s another possibility staring us right in the face: A potential Hillary Clinton landslide. Our polls-only model projects Clinton to win the election by 7.7 percentage points, about the same margin by which Barack Obama beat John McCain in 2008. And it assigns a 35 percent chance to Clinton winning by double digits.
Trump Is In Fourth Place Among Black Voters
It wasn’t that long ago that Donald Trump liked to boast about his support from black voters. And although Trump had a history of controversy on issues of race, it wasn’t that crazy to think he could at least outperform the GOP’s last two presidential nominees, John McCain and Mitt Romney, with black voters. After all, McCain and Romney were polling at less than 5 percent among black voters after their conventions, and Trump isn’t facing off against the first black presidential nominee of a major party. But Trump is polling worse among black voters than almost every single Republican presidential nominee since 1948 in polls taken between the party conventions and Election Day.