US GENERAL ELECTIONS: BATTLE FOR WHITE HOUSE
ELECTORAL MAP RELEASE NO.2
(Geek God Review electoral map generated with the help of 270towin. We cross-referenced available polls and election data to come up with our electoral map, with studies of 2008 and 2010 electoral results; Obama-McCain and Obama-Romney)
Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
Hillary Clinton gets 199 electoral votes against 164 of Donald Trump with 48 electoral votes leaning for Clinton, 27 to Trump and 100 contested electoral votes from 7 battle ground states of Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, Florida, and Michigan.
It’s 46%-36% to Clinton from our last data’s 48-40. Clinton down 2%, Trump down 4% with gap widening from 8% to 10%
The map shifted since our first electoral map release as we conceded Nevada as a battle ground state but Republicans looses Colorado and Florida, once a bailiwick, is now a slipping on their grasp as Sen. Marco Rubio still refuses to endorse Donald Trump.
On the Democrats side, they lost Nevada and Michigan, turning those states into battle grounds. Michigan will potentially be bloody as it has 16 electoral votes.
The Road to 270: HILLARY CLINTON
Clinton needs to clinch the 48 electoral votes leaning to her (she lost 13 leaning delegates from last time) and win 23% of the battle ground states, up 5.76% from last prediction.
The Road to 270: DONALD TRUMP
Trump needs to clinch the 27 electoral votes leaning to him (he lost 29 leaning delegates from last time) and win 79% of the battle ground states, down 7.20% from last prediction. A must-win for the Republicans is the battle ground state of Florida with 29 electoral votes.
Clinton just needs 22 electoral votes (with 199 electoral votes plus 48 leaning to her side) to tie the elections with Trump needing 78 electoral votes (with 164 electoral votes plus 27 leaning to his side). This is up 62.82% which is looking like a disaster for the Republicans.
Best Scenario for Republicans:
Trump winning the 164 electoral votes plus 27 leaning to his side, getting 70% of the battle ground states and 30% of those states leaning to Clinton.
TOTAL ELECTORAL VOTES: 275 (against 263 of Clinton; 12 electoral votes difference). The gap is narrowing from 21 to 12. The best scenario for the Republicans is looking more and more like a contested elections.
Best Scenario for Democrats:
Clinton winning the 199 electoral votes plus 48 leaning to her side, getting 70% of the battle ground states and 30% of those states leaning to Trump.
TOTAL ELECTORAL VOTES: 277 (against 213 of Trump; 64 electoral votes difference). Clinton looses 40 electoral votes from last best scenario prediction. The gap is narrowing from 97 to 64.
(Next map will be released after the Democratic and Republican conventions).